2024 LEXUS WSL FINALS ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
This Top Five Finals Day format is irksome to many. While some people love it (usually those who have won before, who prefer small waves or have the best backhand air reverses in the business), many fans, spectators, and other stakeholders do not enjoy it. Once upon a time, the world title had a considerable element of big(ger) waves as an integral element, and the thrill of Hawaii was part of the DNA. Today, it is focused on small-wave wizardry, which is not what everyone admires.
Still, professional surfing aims to determine a world champion, and with that in mind, Trestles is as good a venue as any. It has lefts and rights (so does Pipe) and high-performance ramp sections everywhere. It just lacks drama and excitement, which are often the elements that hook spectators who are not hardcore fans and keep them enthralled. We can expect airs all day, spins, flips, straight airs and grabs from all five, and some serious claiming from at least two of the Top Five surfers.
FAVORITES
Italo Ferreira
Odds:
TBD
Italo Ferreira is likely to win this thing. Sneaking into the top five through the back door, he is by far the most hungry for the title, and his surfing is on-point for the current judging criteria of successful airs regardless of style. When it comes to airs in small conditions, which is what Trestles will be, he is peerless, which will be his winning ticket.
The only chance of any of the other surfers beating him is the possibility that Trestles might be flawless and five foot. If so, his advantage narrows slightly, and the other surfers come into the mix a bit more. Still, if he gets a few right-hand set waves and finds his magic, it will be game over, and he will be crowned again as the best professional surfer in the world.
He might not be the most popular surfer in the world, but he has millions of fans from Brazil, and they will be screaming support from the beaches, on screens, and on forums the world over as he enters the fray as the man most likely to win.
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
TBD
Griffin Colapinto is the surfer who has found his secret path this year. Like Slater or Tom Curren, Griffin has that extra slice of magic in his surfing that enables him to see different lines, the lines that the wave reveals to some, that allows for incredibly precise surfing and more makes than fails when it comes to huge turns.
Griff will always find the right waves, and his surfing is a blend of imagination combined with power that is also favoured by the judging panel. If the waves are tiny and crumbly, he is the one surfer who will put on a real battle against the Brazilian goofy-footer, and he will have incredible support on the beach throughout the day's surfing.
Sometimes, in the past, he has been over-hyped and has crumbled at the last minute. Still, the natural footer seems to have that under control now and exudes such an aura of zen that Griff might go trance-like into a winning mode for the duration of the finals and emerge from the daze on the other side as the world champion. If Griffin doesn't get it this year, he will get it one day, whether the finals are held at Trestles, Cloudies or Abu Dhabi.
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
John John Florence is already the king, and his indifference to contests and nonchalance is carefully contrived, consciously or subconsciously, to complement his persona. Underneath it all, the man wants to win, as seen by his year-long points tally and winning averages.
John John does surf exceptionally at Trestles, though, and although his second to Jordy was hotly debated, he did manage to put a 9.93 on the scoreboard to show that he knows how to ride the wave for the judges and kill it when he needs to. He will be advantaged if the waves have some size and push behind them when his smooth but incredibly precise surfing becomes more apparent – he is so good that sometimes he falls into the Joel Parkinson trap of making things look too easy.
Still, he might have the unparalleled surfing approach to big and gnarly waves, followed by Jack Robinson, but when it comes to the huge moves, he never holds back, from the days of the 'biggest alley-oop in contest history' back in the day at Keramas in 2013. There might have been bigger such moves since, but his gung-ho approach to and make of this turn belies what is hiding under his cheery demeanour.
SLEEPERS
Ethan Ewing
Odds:
TBD
Ethan Ewing has the speed, power, and flow to win any contest he enters, but his smoothness might be his downfall at this event. The hugely popular Australian does not have it in him to bounce and bounce to generate speed before going for that huge final move, preferring instead to connect all the dots and work on flow and combos. Still, he is another one who can pull it together if the waves come to the party; he does have every move in his arsenal, particularly on his forehand, and a couple of right-hand runners could see him blow minds. Ethan is another surfer who desperately wants a world title and to show the world what he holds.
We have all had glimpses of it, but he is quiet and unassuming. Ethan doesn't shout anything unusual or eccentric to the world in his personality or approach. He has a smattering of old school in him and likes to surf every wave to completion, but should he find a rhythm and, as mentioned, get onto good waves with open faces, he might surprise us all and do what is needed for a world title.
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
Jack Robinson has the rare element in that his skill and mastery of the biggest and heaviest waves that the tour can throw at him is seen as a disadvantage at this point in the game. He has, no doubt, been practicing in smaller and less exciting conditions around his hometown, but should The Box or North Point be on fire, he will not be that surfer to go and practice at the local beachie to up his game for the Trestles confrontation. Still, one must remember his win at the Corona Open Mexico at Barra de la Cruz in Huatulco, Mexico. Three years ago. The waves were small and not gnarly, so how did he win? He took to the air on the opening section of the waves instead of waiting for the end sections. His competitor in this event, Deivid Silva, might have been of a different calibre than the current top five, but Jack impressed. The waves allowed him to get some bonus points for decent but small tube rides, but he did win it with the narrowest margin (15.16 as opposed to 15.14). Still, the narrowest of margins does not detract from a win.
LONGSHOT
Odds:
