PARIS 2024 OLYMPIC SURFING ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
It's 'the end of the road' for some and 'the place of broken skulls' for others. Either way, Teahupo'o is not a place to be messed with. People have died surfing there, and others have surfed Championship Tour-level heats and refused to take off on a single wave during their heats. It intimidates the best surfers in the world and no one is entirely comfortable out there. This makes it a valid location for surfing in the 2024 Olympic Games.
It is the one wave on tour where experience is the most important asset. Familiarity overshadows bravery, and it eclipses contest strategy. You could be out of the contest with an injury if you make a poor wave selection. Make a good call on a set wave, and you could score tens.
Still, you do need some bravery out there. If you haven't got the mettle to get over the scariest ledge in the world, then you're wasting your time. As WSL commentator Martin Potter used to say, you can’t win heats unless you're surfing waves. There is only so much bobbing and weaving one can do before and during a heat, but you must stand up and ride waves to get the scores.
Contest strategy also plays a part, but when the waves get serious, there is usually a rotational system in place, and everyone knows who is next in line for a death set.
Still, if we're lucky, the forecast looks small to medium, so it could be anyone's game. Still, here are our choices.
FAVORITES
Jack Robinson
Odds:
4.70
Previous winner, adept at the art of back-hand tube riding, nerves of steel, and the strong desire to win. This combination makes Jack one of the favourites to win at Teahupo'o. In fact, Jack becomes the favourite to win any contest when there are waves of consequences. He's unlikely to win Trestles, which means he won't be getting a world title chance until next year.
Still, even if the swell doesn't get massive for the Olympics, Jack will be one of the dominant surfers at Teahupo'o. If that phantom swell starts to take shape for the end of the contest period, he's the man. Jack is known to have a 'master plan' and often refers to the plan' in interviews. Maybe Gold is part of it.
John John Florence
Odds:
4.15
If you ever want to consider John John's pedigree at Teahupo'o, then look back at the heat he surfed there in 2014 against Kelly Slater. Often called 'the greatest heat ever surfed,' the wave average was 9.89. John John has every asset needed to win at Teahupo'o, including his Big Match Temperament coolness. Unless the swell stays small, then it opens up the field a bit.
Still, even if the waves stay medium-sized and don't get too heavy, John John's progressive surfing approach will see him head and shoulders above most other competitors. We always just question his hunger. Does he have it at this contest? If he does, then everyone else might as well go home.
Is John John going to retire? If so, getting Gold will be the one thing that helps him decide.
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
3.25
Medina is definitely the contest machine, the Teahupoo expert, and a cunning strategist who could easily win this event.
Medina won at Teahupo'o in 2014 and 2018 and was runner-up in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2023. That's quite a list of results, making him one of the most consistent finalists of all time.
In addition, he is also one of the most popular surfers of all time, having appeared on the scene at the Quiksilver King Of The Groms contest in France in 2009, dropping tens and scoring a perfect heat.
Medina did the hard yards to become comfortable in waves of consequence. It has paid off in waves like Teahupo'o and Pipeline.
SLEEPERS
Ramzi Boukhaim
Odds:
20.75
The Moroccan has an X Factor in his make-up: determination. After such a long slog to get to where he is and a few of what might seem unfair decisions on paper, he now has a point to prove and a relentless drive to not let anything slip from his grasp. While focusing on championship tour surfing, he is utterly driven to vindicate his spot on the surfing hierarchy. He will do what he must to stay there. There was also his third-place finish at the Shiseido Pro Tahiti this year, losing in the semi-finals to eventual event winner Italo Ferreira, demonstrating his knowledge of the wave.
Being a goofy-footer is also an advantage, and Boukhaim is fit, strong, and ready to do some damage.
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
12.00
As Griff develops as a surfer, he never ceases to amaze. At this stage, we are all getting to know how gnarly he is in waves of consequence. Maybe it's because his brother Crosby or his group of hometown friends push him hard. Still, Griffin is known for going on crazy waves at places like Pipeline and other Hawaiian reefs. Combined with his innate talent, the currently second-ranked surfer on the Championship Tour could easily surprise everyone.
Griff also has that cool factor that he exudes wherever he goes. It helps paint the picture of a surfer on the ascendancy and ready for a world title, a Gold Medal, and a long career at the very top echelon of the sport. He and his brother have contributed so much to this stage of professional surfing as a segment of our sport's history, and there is more to come.
LONGSHOT
Matthew McGillivray
Odds:
79.00
How long a shot? He showed us how he could send it when the waves were huge and get 10 points for his efforts.
In the 2022 Shiseido Tahiti round of 16 vs Griffin Colapinto, he launched himself over the ledge on a beast of a wave, disappeared, and got spat out the channel for a 10-point ride. If you can do that once, you can do it again, and McGillivray, it is clear, is not scared in any way. In fact, another competitor in Toledo could do well to get some pointers from the skydiving South African.
McGillivray is also a clutch-fiend, making the cut and requalifying on the absolute brink of being cut more than once. He takes a fierce and dogged approach to every heat, competing to his full capacity until the very last second has counted out. He has a bit of a clichéd underdog persona that sticks around, but he is far from a dark horse.
