VALUE BETTING

HOW TO IDENTIFY VALUE BETS

Key to successful betting is in finding value betting situations. A value betting situation is one where the odds on offer from a bookmaker reflect a probability that is less to the actual probability of that outcome.

Let’s roll a dice as an example.

Rolling a dice gives six possible outcomes. That gives a probability of 16.67% for the dice to land on any of the six sides.

Decimal odds = 100 / Implied probability

100 / 16.67 = 6.00

Using this probability to calculate the odds, would give us a odds of 6.00 for each of the six sides to come up.

Let’s say we have two bookmakers and that we want to bet on the dice rolling a six.

Bookmaker 1 is offering odds of 5.90 on a six.

Bookmaker 2 is offering odds of 6.10 on a six.

How to calculate the value and find out which bookmaker to go with:

Value = Implied probability x Decimal odds - 100%

Bookmaker 1:

16.67 x 5.90 - 100 = - 1.67%

At - 1.67% bookmaker 1 is not offering us a value bet.

Let’s look at bookmaker 2.

Bookmaker 2:

16.67 x 6.10 - 100 = 1.67%

At 1.67% bookmaker 2 is offering us a value bet, so we will go with bookmaker 2.

HOW TO FIND VALUE BETS

Finding value bets is easier said than done.

When you first start betting on sports, it's a good idea to specialise in leagues and sports you are already familiar with. After you have developed your sense for betting value by focusing on leagues you know well, you will then be able to apply what you have learned to other leagues and sports. Another tip is to look at smaller betting markets where the bookmakers level of expertise might not be as high as in more common sports.