2024 LEXUS PIPE PRO ODDS, PICKS, AND PREDICTIONS
This is not a good time to be a professional surfer scared of surfing Pipeline. The ''23/'24 winter season at Pipe has been horrendous. World number four Brazilian Joao Chianca, Eimeo Czermak (Tahiti), Koa Rothman (Hawaii), Joaquin Del Castillo (Peru,) Kai Lenny (Hawaii), and a sixth unnamed surfer have all suffered heavy wipe-outs and injuries over the season. Most of the above are still recovering and are out of the water. There is an old story that someone dies at Pipe every second year, so this year's Pipe contest will be intense in more ways than one.
Pipeline is the one wave on the tour where experience is much more important than talent, wave selection is more treasured than bravado, and safety can play a bigger part than courage. Kelly Slater, the eldest and most experienced surfer on tour, proved this with a braggadocios win at Pipe in 2022.
However, if you don't have the nerve to get over the ledge on a heaving day at Pipeline, then you're out of the game. There are enough surfers on tour with built-in bravado that will not pull back on a set. This makes any surfer too nervous to give it a go, utterly irrelevant in a heat situation. So Toledo has no chance unless it is tiny, which it isn't going to be.
FAVORITES
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
Last year's winner, Australian natural footer Jack Robinson, is one of the few surfers on tour dedicated to winning a world title. That might sound glib, but some surfers have that extra edge of absolute hunger, of almost desperation for a title. Italo Ferreira won a world title with that level of hunger, and Medina had that same hunger when he first came on tour. However, it has faded a bit now. If your ultimate goal is a world title, it will fade away when the goal is attained.
On top of Robinson's desire to win is his absolute comfort when the surf is big, uncontrolled, and scary. His penchant for big reef barrels holds him in good stead at places like Pipe, Teahupo'o, Cloudbreak, and The Box should Margaret's contest go there. Robbo is an obvious choice for a win.
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
TBD
As mentioned earlier, Medina had a hunger when he started out on the tour all those years ago, but it has faded a bit. With world titles under the belt, a bank account that can take care of everything for the rest of his days, and celebrity-style popularity stakes in Brazil, Medina doesn't need another title. It would be nice, but it doesn't shape his existence anymore. Having said that, Medina now has the experience - that much-valued asset – in the lineup at Pipeline. He also doesn't have many nervous bones in his body, and while he might be calculating and rarely falls off at Pipe, he will still launch on 50/50 wave decisions. His skill sees him to the safety of the channel. He could easily win if he feels like it.
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
The only fault John John has at Pipeline is that he makes it seem so easy. His sangfroid in waves of danger reveals little about the nuances of paddle, take-off, bottom turn, and barrel ride that Florence possesses. Yet, he does know how to win, and it is by absolutely trouncing his opponents, leaving no doubt in anyone's mind that he is a clear and undisputed winner.
Should he find his game face for this contest, and there is a good chance as he is currently 8th on the rankings and can't be happy with that, then he will be untouchable. His skills, when Pipe gets unruly and nearly unplayable, are legendary, and his ability to find that diamond in the rough will be what sees him heading for a finals berth.
SLEEPERS
Leonardo Fioravanti
Odds:
TBD
A charger in the vein of Jeremy Flores, Fioravanti can dig deep when required and launch over the ledge at Pipeline when most mortals are paddling around with splayed fingers, wanting nothing to do with the drop. A runner-up position last year cemented his reputation as a surfer who knows his way around the fearsome lineup, and his options going forward are wide open. The natural-footed Fioravanti has always displayed a coolness and a big-match temperament when it counts. He has been known to fight with full intent up to and including the very last second of a heat, sometimes beating his competitors by ferocity alone.
Caio Ibelli
Odds:
TBD
The 19th-ranked Brazilian, perennial in his surfing career, might seem like an outsider. Still, his results sometimes don't get tallied into the big-picture consciousness of the professional surfing zeitgeist. A third-place finish at Pipeline in 2022 and a third-place finish at Pipe in 2023 must surely make him one of the contenders for a solid result at Pipe this year.
The only thing that might hold Ibelli back at the finish is his inability to go in for the kill. When there is any weakness or chinks revealed in armour, other title-holding surfers pounce on the weakness and extract a win at all costs. Ibelli might not have that ability to do that, and at times seems surprised and stoked to make it to a quarter-finals berth or more. He is a top surfer and less hungry, but should he find the mental clarity to see him channel Mike Tyson or someone similar, he will win.
LONGSHOT
Seth Moniz
Odds:
TBD
One of the nicest guys on tour, Seth has always shown skill, style, courage, and adaptability in Hawaii, his place of birth. His runner-up position shows that he has the grit to get to the finals and has the actual wave totally dialed, no matter what the size or direction. If he can make it to a finals berth, he has the skills for a win. His road to the final in 2022 included a decisive victory over Filipe Toledo, a close win against John John Florence in the quarters, and a resounding win over Ibelli in the semis. In the final, he came up against a possessed Slater, who banked a 9'00 and a 9'77 for a heat total of 18.77, leaving Moniz very little room to move. Still, a final at Pipe is something you will have forever that no one can take away from you, but a win would be better.
