2023 TAHITI PRO ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
For some, it is the most feared event, while others relish having a massive advantage at The End Of The Road. Boards and bones are broken at 'The Place Of Broken Skulls, and the darkest fears are realised in that leveling lineup. Kelly Slater and Jack Robinson are the first two surfers that come front of mind when starting the Chopes forecast.
Slater. Why would you honestly choose a 50-something surfer who has seemingly lost most of his ability to mesmerise the judges?
The answer is that Teahupo'o is the one wave that gives Slater a greater chance of a win than Pipeline, and we know how he went there. It is more machine-like than Pipe, and the only way to win heats is to get into position and ride a straight line to the channel. That's what Kelly excels in. That's what gets him to a win at Pipe.
When Chopes is big, it consists of three essential elements:
I) Positioning. The only way to understand the many swell directions, tides, and swell period variables is to have the experience. Slater has this in buckets at Chopes, having won and …
II) Making the takeoff. Many surfers know how to get to the bottom of a wave at Chopes, but many do not. Slater is hugely relaxed when it starts getting uncomfortably big for most, and his late drops into the tube in years past have been legendary. He is not unparalleled out there, but he's one of the best.
III) Tube riding is basically going in a straight line in perfect trim. Slater is one of the best at this in the sport's history, and he consistently finds those lines.
IV) The fourth element is that Kelly is not done yet. He needs One More Thing. He needs one more big round of applause before he can contemplate resting.
But who else? Who else can position, make the drop, and straight-line it through a concave tube? Who else?
FAVORITES
João Chianca
Odds:
TBD
João Chianca has become an integral part of the top brass from Brazil. That segment - the world champ trio and the first wave of The Brazilian Storm - will be in disarray in Tahiti. Italo will be resting up somewhere, and Filipe will probably not advance from any heat. So Chianca is going to have a fresh chance to really shine. He has the skills and nous for when it gets chunky, and he enjoys winning. So he could be the Brazilian star of the event. His star is still ascending, so his time will come.
Yago Dora
Odds:
TBD
Yago Dora is currently placed 5th in the world, and he wants a few things out of this life still before this turn of the sun is over. One of them is getting into the top 5. He has no room to move. Sitting at just under 37,000 points at number 5 in the world, he is a whole 6,000 points behind 4th placed Chianca, which is a massive margin at this later stage of the year. Yago has shown that he has a killer instinct and can blast out of his comfort zone when required. He's always calm under the pressure of approaching sets at Chopes. He also has various methods of successfully riding the tube out there.
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
TBD
Gabby would like nothing better than to clinch another win at Chopes. The spotlight has veered a little off Gabby recently as he has opted to quietly get on with the job, rarely being a nuisance. Although he did have a burst of emotion on Social Media after the Wave Ranch judging and scoring fiasco. Still, Gabby knows what to do to win a heat, an event, or a world title. If he goes into this event and finds his rhythm early, he could be that part of the Brazilian Storm who continues the team's winning ways. When Gabby gets in synch with Chopes, he is unbeatable, and it is game over for everyone else.
SLEEPERS
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
While Jack isn't one to moan too much - he likes to win convincingly and leaves no room for close calls and 50/50s - he hasn't been getting his share of swing votes lately. It must be frustrating for the young Australian. Still, his biggest advantage, which could see him head straight for the final at Chopes, is his uncanny technical skills. Growing up surfing The Box and North Point has made Jack comfortable with big waves breaking over shallow reefs. When this happens at a place like Chopes, Jack is all over it with no peer. Reminiscent of a young Slater at Pipe, Robbo knows precisely what needs to be done when the waves get gnarly. he is also very hungry at the moment, sitting at no. 8 on the rankings and needing something massive to get into the top five.
Connor O'Leary
Odds:
TBD
The Australian goofy footer with a Japanese surfing mom and Aussie dad has been going great guns and could take this impetus into Tahiti. He has shown great form of late with a nail-bitingly close win over John John Florence in JBay for the Corona Open JBay. He has a no-nonsense approach and wastes no time between big turns.
O'Leary doesn't carry the air of a world champ about him but does smack of contest victories, steel nerves, clutch moments, and big moves in big waves. If Chopes falls in synch with the powerful goofy-footer, he could be the events' main guy.
LONGSHOT
Kelly Slater
Odds:
TBD
See the top of the article. He is not done yet, and Teahupo'o could give him a good chance of a big result.
