2024 MARGARET RIVER PRO PREDICTIONS
The Margaret River Pro is the most critical surf event on the Championship Tour.
What comes to mind foremost when thinking about the Margaret River Pro are three things. Firstly, John John's ridiculous, full-power forehand gouges on the biggest rights he can find. Those turns are seared into viewers' brains after Florence showed everyone the real way to surf Margarets.
The second element that this event evokes is Matt McGillivray in full clutch beast mode. Seemingly always on the cusp of the impending cut, Matt throws caution to the wind and goes do-or-die with nary a thought about playing it safe and getting two banked. First-minute heroics and last-second airs, McGillivray does whatever it takes and stays glued to his board. The third thought is that of the arcane marriage of Jack Robinson and The Box. His ability out there is Faustian in its weirdness and intensity, and should they move the contest to the slabby venue, in the words of Highlander Connor McLeod from the Clan McLeod, 'there can be only one!' Robbo will be untouchable.
Even though the mid-year cut is so despised, it does make this event quite riveting. The cut might not be as despised as the Trestles Top 5 Finals, but it is not a popular element among competitors and spectators alike. It does make this event the most important tournament of the year as it is the only contest with consequences and because no one believes in or cares for the Trestles Final. Ask Carissa.
FAVORITES
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
There is little doubt that Florence will advance to the top four in this event, as he has so much in the tank right now. He has a combination of hunger, and surfing joie de vrieve, along with the most intense and dramatic forehand arc in the business. Those three elements, in combination, will prove him unstoppable. The only thing that might hold him back is if the waves are small and the advantage is less. Florence is a perfect example of someone who is in the right place at the right time and knows it, and it will probably end with a world title if he figures out how best to surf small, weak Trestles.
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
TBD
His performance in Portugal cemented the concept of Medina going on a wild streak this year. His smiles and genuine love for being in the moment came through loud and clear, and even the fact that the call in the semi-finals (he was possibly underscored) got the tongues wagging and the conspiracy theorists ranting again from behind their keyboards didn't really upset his chilled manner nor his obvious desire to win. With Filpe Toledo off the tour, Jaoa Chianca injured, and Italo Ferreira off the radar and currying no favours from the judges and the armchair critics, Medina is the sole Brazilian Storm who is still impressing. He might be sitting quite far down the rankings, but his jump by 11 spots after Portugal shows the obvious line of his ascendency.
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
TBD
The Man Who Would Be King. Amongst the nay-saying and criticisms of the WSL and their sometimes awkward decisions, there is a pocket of energy around the Cola Bros and the Two Percent Crew, and Griff is leading the charge. He has the skill of making finals, and his performance last year, beating Florence in the final before getting taken out by Medina in the final, is still talked about. He also pulled off one of the biggest airs last year and seems to have the churning inside of the Margaret River right-handers under control.
He has a very good support system, and with Tom Whitaker (and maybe Matthew McConaughey) in his corner, Griff can focus on what he does best: winning heats.
SLEEPERS
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
Not everyone likes taking off on huge waves when bare rocks are sticking out, all sorts of boils and bumps and warbles abound, and there is an actual chance of getting an injury. Ask Toledo. Still, when the Box gets as gnarly as it does, just before going unrideable, Jack comes to the fore. He also has the ultimate wave selection skill under his belt at The Box that only comes from endless hours spent out there, taking the licks and then getting those waves that turn into miraculous gems. Robinson is definitely the man to watch at The Box. Still, he is not too shabby at Main Break either, winning the event against Florence in 2022 in big, windblown rights off the main peak. Airs, downcarves, massive lip slams, and tight finishes over the inside chaos proved that he was The Best In The West at that stage.
Barron Mamiya
Odds:
TBD
With a fifth place at Margaret River last year and sitting at fifth place on the Championship Tour rankings before Bells, Mamiya is poised for another big result after his win at Pipe. Some people think that Mamiya only has a big wave/Pipe kind of game, but the Hawaiians also know how to rip when the waves get poor. That's why so many world champions come from there.
Mamiya has a complete bag of tricks and an air game but thrives when it gets bigger and has a bit of juice to spare. That's when his boards kick in, and he starts powering off the rail. He also has a good team on our to help him along, and although he might not be the most popular surfer on tour, a win at Margaret's is totally within his grasp.
LONGSHOT
Matthew McGillivray
Odds:
TBD
Last gasp clutch moment to the max South African surfer Matt McGillivray will not disappoint at Margaret's. He has compared the big rights coming off the peak to some wave at home, JBay, so it would probably be maxing Boneyards, the very top section of the wave that smashes down on shallow reef before collecting itself, smoothing out and heading down towards supers. It is also the notorious section that broke Kelly's foot a few years ago and kept him in excises for missing events for about 18 months, milking it for all it was worth.
Part of McGillivray's mindset is not to be intimidated by other surfers. He knows he should be on the CT after the cut and will get there. The thing is that, amid his steely focus, he might find himself surfing all the way through to the finals.
