2024 MEO RIP CURL PRO ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
In stark contrast to the North Shore of Oahu, Supertubos is a beach break that may throw a few incredible barrels on good days, but it is often just a good old beachie with some walls, some corners, and some close-outs. Let's not misunderstand that it can be a remarkable wave – one of the best waves in Portugal – but it doesn't have the perfectly shaped reefs nor the absence of a continental shelf that makes for such powerful and sublime waves of Hawaii.
Callum Robson's thick barrel and 10-point ride last year shows that Supertubos still has plenty of grunt and needs total commitment, that's a given, but it's not a Pipeline or a Sunset Beach.
As the Brazilian Storm is slowing down somewhat, with Filipe off the scene and Jaoa still recovering, let's not forget Italo Ferreira. Slightly lower-key than in the past, he must be one surfer who is as committed as ever and has the hunger right now. For different reasons, but just as peckish is Jordy Smith. He has been putting in extra effort and training hard, as his responsibility to be a parent gives him the impetus to do well in what could be his twilight years. Coming off two good results in Hawaii, and with a track record at Portugal that includes three x 2nd places over the years, this might be the year he goes one better.
Talking of twilight years, what do we do about Kelly? He's off this list for now, but he can and might show everyone up.
FAVORITES
Jordy Smith
Odds:
TBD
After two good results in Hawaii and ranking fourth in the world, Mr. Smith is currently pumped for this year and might be on the world title run that has eluded him for so long. Kelly Slater said back in the day that Jordy Smith would win multiple world titles, and we all thought this would be the case. Still, a few niggling injuries and a little bit of time to figure out how to surf big and gnarly backhand barrels (are you reading this, Filipe?) put him back a little. He has two runner-up slots but no world title yet. He also likes Portugal and is very comfortable there, so that something might click this year. He has the complete package, from Pipe to Sunset to Supertubos; he just needs to win with his mind before anything else. No one will be surprised if Jordy fulfills his destiny.
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
TBD
Everyone loves Griff, and he also has a world title in him somewhere. His small wave game is dialled in, and he always surprises everyone when the waves get overhead and barreling. His recent performances in Hawaii - in contests and free surfing - show he has some special sauce and can create a heat-winning performance on most waves in most conditions. He had a poor start to Sunset Beach, but it doesn't reflect his recent performances. His air game is so extreme, and his flair and imagination are unsurpassed now. And he won the event in 2022 against Filipe, so there is also that.
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
One surfer who has his mind game dialled is young Australian Jack Robinson. he is always calm and collected when under pressure, feels no pressure when it comes to clutch moments and is clearly engaging with breathing and zen-like calmness practices on contest sites to find the best mental place he can be. It clearly works, and others could learn from him. If Jack has a weakness, it might be weak and lacklustre small wave conditions. He seems to step up to the plate every time as it gets bigger and gnarly. He wants Supertubos to be big, heavy, and slabbing to get any real advantage over fellow competitors. So, a chunky swell forecast will hold him in favour.
SLEEPERS
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
Like Robinson, Florence only comes truly alive in the surf when it is big and heavy enough to scare mere mortals. Whenever the waves are gnarly and dangerous in a competition, he becomes an immediate dangerman, adding to his world titles' notoriety.
Should John decide that 2024 is the year for another world title, he will go out there and get another one. Still, until he makes that decision, John is a relaxed yet imaginative surfer and one of those guys whose heat you daren't miss.
Italo Ferreira
Odds:
TBD
Supertubos is a wave that suits Italo Ferreira, and he enjoys surfing in it. He is a winning surfer in Portugal, with victories in 2019 and 2018 and a 2nd in 2015, so he knows the wave well.
Italo has been out of favour with spectators and judges over the last few years, and he has had quite a few close calls against him and unlucky breaks. Having said that, many think his high-flying antics are not pleasing to the eye, and his pumping and boosting approach is unattractive. Having said that, if he is fulfilling the speed, power, and flow criteria, he deserves to win. He's also not one to pull back when the surf starts getting solid and shallow, and his approach to Pipe and Chopes is admirable. Italo also needs to clear his mind from all the chatter. He is fit and ready.
LONGSHOT
Ryan Callinan
Odds:
TBD
One of Richard Dog Marsh's students, Ryan, has always been bubbling under and about to do something great. Then, something seems to hold him back from the final approach. When he's loose and feeling good, his backhand is deadly, and he is also not one to pull back on anything that looks dark and foreboding and 50/50. He will commit and go over the ledge without a pause. His semifinal against Robinson at Sunset Beach could have gone his way, and his surfing at Sunset was on point. Always the underdog, Callinan has yet to have his big moment. He's due one, and it could come at any time this year on tour. Why not Portugal?
