2024 RIP CURL PRO BELLS BEACH PREDICTIONS
What is it about Bells Beach that keeps the events held there in such awe, and what is it that makes the event so exciting? It is, after all, a gently sloping right-hander with very few hollow sections and not too much drama.
Well, for one, it gets huge at times and unruly. Just ask Italo Ferreira, who went over the notorious Winkipop Button in 2019. Luckily, the tide was high enough for him not to get nailed, but people have died there before. Italo had an emotional moment and had to lie down on the stairs for a while to recover, but he was okay.
It also encourages open-face surfing, especially when it is solid. For many surfers, CT level or otherwise, carving power turns on the face is more challenging than tricks, airs, and barrels. It involves serious rail engagement, subtle yet definitive weight manipulation, and the ability to follow rail moves all the way to completion.
Also, Bells is the wave that starkly reveals flaws in a surfer's bag of tricks. Unlike JBay, where surfers can take to the air and get totally barreled, Bells is challenging to successfully execute a decent variety of moves, so unless you have a few hidden tricks and some special sauce, it can lend itself to repetitive surfing.
Finally, it is a natural footer wave. This may be because they can throw buckets easier than their goofy-footed counterparts, but since 1998, there have only been three goofy winners: Mark Occhilupo, Matt Wilkinson, and Italo Fereira.
FAVORITES
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
TBD
Putting Gabby on the top of the favourites list seems counterintuitive, but have you seen him surfing recently? It reminds me of Derek Hynd describing Occy in his heyday as 'nothing can stop him. It's over. Forget it.
There has been a fundamental change in Gabby's life, and it has manifested as the best surfer doing his best surfing at this point in time. He also enjoys winning heats again and clearly comes across as a man on the rampage for a world title. Gabby can rip Bells to pieces, and if that skill and talent are combined with the eye of the tiger in him, then he is on an inexorable path to the podium, and I feel sorry for anyone who comes up against him. Currently ranked at a miserable 19th before reshuffles after Portugal, it is irrelevant as his stars seem aligned.
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
It's great to see John John Excited about surfing again. He is energetic and pumped, paddling furiously for waves, bouncing off the walls in post-heat interviews, and seems genuinely happy to be where he is right now. Rumours of him going off on a yacht for a few years and barring the tour are all gossip, and he is also in a good place in the world, as reflected by his performances. He also has the best open face carve in the business, and it is deadly in Australia at both Bells and Margaret River. His point of difference is that final surge at the very bottom of the turn, where he applies that little bit of extra drive and power and finishes off the turn like a beast at the base of the wave before swinging straight back up into the next. No double-pumps, check turns, or setting up; he just powers through to the next. It's what saw him win the event in 2019.
Jordy Smith
Odds:
TBD
In his own words, the big guy has never trained so hard before, and it is showing wherever he goes. His Portugal meander was a disappointment, but at 6th in the world and a former champion at Bells in 2017, he clearly has something going on this year. He is one of the few power surfers who absolutely thrives at Bells, possibly due to his long history of the right-hand point breaks like Supers and the perfect sand bottom rights of New Pier that was his upbringing.
Some guys also kick out at Bells as it approaches the end section shut-down, at times a particularly nasty end, but Jordy will be the guy who will go for broke, even if there is dry sand in front of him and an eight-foot wave behind him. It's impossible to walk away from a. Jordy heat at Bells no matter how desperate you are for the bathroom.
SLEEPERS
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
TBD
One of the smoothest surfers on tour at the moment, Griffin keeps on surprising as he demonstrates his mastery of all sorts of waves. Whether it is a small beachbreak or maxing pipe, he goes as hard as nails on everything without fear, and his skill backs up his courage. If the surf isn't too big and Griff manages to get his air game going, the natural-footed freak will be a winner, and Griff might surprise us all with big wave proficiency. He has found the formula for CT surfing, though, and when that happens, it often just turns into a runaway winner, like Martin Potter in 1989. Griff might be the next guy to exemplify the judging criteria and solve the riddle of pro surfing.
Ethan Ewing
Odds:
TBD
We all want Ethan to keep on his trajectory, and at third in the world and a defending champion, he looks like a dead cert for a final push. His mastery of carves on bigger waves is the only thing possibly holding him back. His courage is already noted – no cowardly lion in him – but his tight-in-the-pocket surfing, impeccable lip, and air moves might become superfluous at big bells. If it stays in the small range, then Ethan – the new fastest surfer in the world -will be the guy to redefine what can be done at the Bells Bowl and claim a second win.
LONGSHOT
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
Jack Robbo loves a right-hand point, craves big surf, and wants to go to the air on the biggest sections he can find. He is calm, dedicated, focused, and intent on a world title as soon as possible. At second in the world right now and with a win at Sunset to bolster his confidence, it would be a loss not to have Jack down as a favourite.
He would be our first pick if it were a big and gnarly location with rock boils and barrels. However, as it can get soft and flat, Jack must lean hard on his rail game and show us what he has. With a hunger for victory, he can't be discounted in any way.
