2024 SURF CITY EL SALVADOR ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
Another right-hand point-break compared to Supertubes in JBay, which breaks nothing like the wave in South Africa whatsoever. Still, Punta Roca is a very good, high-performance wave that works for the goofy and naturals alike and even throws a few barrels here and there. How high performance? Last year saw a slew of excellent scores dropping throughout the tournament, including an 8.6 from Griff, a 9-pointer from Leonardo, an 8.83 from Filipe, an 8.67 from Kanoa and an 8.6 from Ian Gentil.
With Filipe gone to reassess his situation in life in terms of bigger, more gnarly waves and Ian Gentil falling foul to The Cut, the playing field is a little different from last year, except for Griff. Everyone expects the kid to do well, and his current game is pretty tight. The kid is on a roll.
His forehand approach is perfectly suited to Punta Roca. He unleashes a full slew of moves when he gets going and executes them with such precision, speed, power, and flow that last year's second place was a no-brainer. He left the judges with little doubt in their minds throughout the contest until the final against Toledo. He was destined for the final from his first heat.
Joao Chianca could be a dark horse at this event, though. With the season wild card in hand and appearing to be well recovered from his head injury, the tall Brazilian could wreak some havoc on the walls of Punta Roca, with a bit of catch-up to do to vindicate his wildcard. He'll do it. He has the desire coupled with the BMT and will be someone who will stand out regardless. It would be great to see him step right back up to where he belongs on the rankings.
FAVORITES
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
TBD
What's not to love about Griff? His work with the Cola Bros video clips is about half why many people stay so attached to the WSL despite their failings. He and his brother and friends are making competitive surfing cool again and making competing on the WSL seem like a dream come true like it should be, much like it was in the days of yore.
He has his eye in at the moment. When he gets going down the line at Punta Roca you just know he is going to do some massive air or futuristic turn that will impress the judges as well as wow the audience. Surfing's golden child at the moment and a current yellow-jersey-wearing no.1, Griff is definitely headed for a world title; we just don't know when.
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
When Jack is on, he is pretty much unbeatable. Reminiscent of when Kelly Slater went through his rampant years after his first break, when he faced off with Andy Irons, or when Tom Curren came through from the trials to win a world title. There's an air of indomitability about him, and whether that is his persona, inner strength, or some sort of fake makeup to scare off competitors, it is working. While Jack doesn't seem like the person who would harm a fly, when he sets out to win a heat, he does not look like he plans to take any prisoners along the way.
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
One of the most pleasurable surfers to watch on any given day of competition or free surfing, John John has been on a bit of a streak lately, surfing to such a high level and showing the world that he, too, can be untouchable. It has seemed in the past that John John's focus can wane a little, and when it does, he loses that determined focus evident in those searing forehand carves. Still, he is on a path of victories right now, and this is another title that could easily be his this year. John John thrives in powerful conditions, so a little bit of extra size and power would definitely play into his strategy and performance levels.
If it gets small and gutless, he risks losing his energy and drive. Still, you have to love it when JJF gets on a roll—he is literally untouchable.
SLEEPERS
Ethan Ewing
Odds:
TBD
It's quite a thing to put Ethan Ewing, the man with the moniker' fastest surfer' at the moment on the tour, as a 'sleeper.', Still, he also has a few, very few, chinks in his armour. To focus on his positives, though, the Straddie-born Ethan is a right-hand point-break surfer through and through, as his style, down-the-line speed, and ability to bank combos, as well as huge airs when needed, make him one of the most exciting surfers on tour right now.
His searing cutbacks, better than Matt Hoy in his heyday, are so totally committed, and they enable him to stay in the pocket all the time and blast off the top as often as necessary. Should he take to the air successfully with his abundance of speed, the judges will reward him handsomely.
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
TBD
Seeing Gabby down at number 19 on the rankings is a strange concept. He doesn't deserve to be that low. His surfing is still on-point, unlike Slater, who has slowed down, is plagued with a few niggling injuries, and seems to definitely have lost interest in the tour. Medina is going to do well in this contest. He needs to jump up the rankings quickly and dramatically in order to play out the rest of the year effectively, and this tournament could be the one that turns it all around for him. Displaying maturity, level-headedness, and the rare ability to chuckle at himself when needed, Medina needs to shut out the conspiracy-theory judging results that have bugged him lately. The scores are set in stone, and Medina would do well to leave the negativity alone. He could easily make this contest his to lose.
LONGSHOT
João Chianca
Odds:
TBD
The popular shredder Chianca is on the comeback trail, and his recent performances in contest vests and free surfing show that he is pretty close to where he was before his injury in terms of performance.
A cunning competitor at the best of times, Chianca would have retained that acumen. He is also a big fan of Punta Roca and throws his frame and weight behind some power gouges on the wave faces. He would have done better than the round of 16 last year. Still, he unluckily came up against a rampant 'gentle giant' Ian Gentil, who went on a tear all the way to the semis. Chianca could be the one going on that tear this year. Watch him.
