2024 TAHITI PRO ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
Chopes. The gnarliest contest of the year, venue for the Olympic Games, and host to the 6th Championship Tour event of the year and first event post-cut.
It is a venue that separates the men from the boys, so to speak. It is the place that revealed Filipe Toledo to have no desire whatsoever to charge on anything that might injure him in any way. It is a place to injure; if it gets solid, it is not for the faint-hearted.
Most say it suits the goofy-footer because it is so gnarly, but there are enough natural footers who have won that it seems to work for both.
It is also a venue that gives someone like Kelly Slater the most chance of a good result. It is a wave that comprises mostly taking off on the right wave, getting to the bottom, and screaming through a few sections into the channel. It is the kind of wave that requires knowledge and experience, both of which Slater has in abundance here. Still, we think not. The new crew is coming on so strong, and the old, old guard should, at some stage, get bypassed. It's happening right now. If Slater gets a wildcard, it will be a big surprise if he makes a final. Still, surprises are part of the sport. Cole Houshmand's victory at Bells Beach earlier this year was a surprise case in point.
FAVORITES
Jack Robinson
Odds:
TBD
Always a lover of a big, thick, and throaty barrel, Robinson loves a bit of Chopes. So much so that he won the event last year, a close result against Gabriel Medina. In fact, Jack can never be discounted for a big result or a win whenever the waves start showing a bit of grunt. Whether it is Pipe or Teahupo'o, The Box or even Cloudbreak, Robinson comes into every heat as a favourite. If it gets super big and close to maxing out, that's when he really comes into his own, which is one of the biggest compliments you can give to a professional surfer – 'relishes the heavy stuff.' Jack will always surf with gusto and never back down when the heavy waves arrive. This event is his to lose, provided he remains injury-free until then.
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
Like Robinson, Florence only comes alive when the surf starts getting serious. He is the surfer who uses the wave's energy and sense of flow to make the waves work for him and not have to fight too much against them. He also isn't scared of much and can be found surfing outer reefs in Hawaii in his spare time under the radar.
Florence, along with Robinson, Medina, and Smith, also had incredible motivation this year. All seem hell-bent on winning a title and events this year, and it is encouraging to see the focus and mind games going on with the best surfers in the world.
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
TBD
The man is a little frustrated this year. He will be unstoppable if he manages to straddle that frustration and turn it into focus. A few calls against him have seen him pushed to the wall. It all depends on whether he rises to the occasion or decides that he might need to go and join Filipe Toledo, Steph Gilmore, and Carissa Moore on a sabbatical. Like Jordy Smith, Medina surfs to compete and wants nothing more than to be on the podium. We shall soon see if he turns it all into resolve and heads on out into the ultra-shallow lineup to win at all costs. He knows exactly how to do that. These days, Medina is a very popular surfer, even further than his hordes of Brazilian fans, and the fact that he has become a bit outspoken is even better.
SLEEPERS
Jordy Smith
Odds:
TBD
The big South African has had a challenging year so far. Well, not bad, but he has claimed that this year is his big year, and an all-out assault on the world title was his goal from the beginning. Pocket 17ths in the last two events will undoubtedly have made a dent in his composure. Still, he is a surfer who fights until the last second in every heat he competes in, so there is every chance in the world that he can turn this around at a stage like this.
It took Jordy a few years to learn how to surf big, barreling left-handers, but he did the work. As part of his training program, he chased lefts around the world. When it clicked, it was a major stumbling block eradicated from his competitive makeup. Now, when it comes to those waves (Chopes, Pipe, Cloudbreak), he comes into these events as a threat. Filipe Toledo should buy the same training program Jordy used.
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
TBD
Besides being recognised as the current best surfer in the world, Colapinto has something else that works at a place like Teahupo'o. he has unbridled bravery when it starts getting challenging in the water. He also has the technical skills to get him to the bottom of these crazy waves, into and out of the barrel. Confidence in technical skills like late take-offs beyond vertical walls will hold you in good stead at a place like Teahupo'o, as well as a visible faith in his equipment. He trusts the process and can easily put a winning notch on his belt for a venue like Chopes. He also has so much support on the ground at events that he might easily be the man at this contest.
LONGSHOT
Barron Mamiya
Odds:
TBD
Despite a third place at this contest last year and a good start to this year's tour, Mamiya still seems to fly under the radar. It could be his personality, which is 'action speaks louder than words, 'or it could be that the media haven't warmed to him yet, but he is a danger at Teahupo'o. Groomed on the grinding stretch of North Shore waves that make or break surfers, Mamiya is comfortable over reefs and excels when it's barreling. He could find himself sitting inside deep backhand tubes at Chopes and be a smiling Victor. He's not going to win at Trestles; that's for another day and another story altogether, but he could easily get a podium in Tahiti.
