MEO RIP CURL PRO PORTUGAL ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
Historically, Peniche can throw any conditions at the Championship Tour surfers. From big, gaping beach break barrels to small and onshore grovel conditions. It is definitely a favorite for the small-wave wizards out there. Still, should it turn on, it is also very suited to those tube-hounds who know their way around shifting beach-break barrels.
The Meo Rip Curl Pro has also seen several excellent rides over the last few events, and a fair amount of perfect 10-point rides being ridden at Supertubos. These include two ridiculous barrels for John John Florence in 2014, Kolohe Andino getting a perfect score in 2015, Filipe Toledo doing the same in 2015, Jordy Smith punching through one of the biggest and longest barrels of the 2016 event, Italo flying through the air for the biggest backhand waft of the tournament in 2019, and Griffin Colapinto doing the same against Kolohe Andino in last year’s quarterfinals match-up.
So the top scores are for huge airs and big, throaty barrels, which means that most Championship Tour surfers could win here. Let’s drill down.
FAVORITES
Filipe Toledo
Odds:
6.00
After his win at Sunset, Filipe has opened up a new dimension to his surfing and is slowly changing the idea that he is small waves only. It wasn’t a booming Sunset for the finals, but it wasn’t the everyday small-wave heroics Toledo is so famous for. He is also very comfortable at Peniche. Even when it gets solid overhead, it’s still a wave for high-performance surfing. This is where Toledo excels. If it is running waves, lefts, or rights, Peniche always seems to pick up a little bit of an air wind, and with his tendency to fly, he has to be one of the top favorites for the tournament. His two complete rotations on one wave in 2015 to understand how easily he could have this title.
Jack Robinson
Odds:
10.0
At the top of the rankings, Robinson has had an excellent run in Hawaii because both Pipe and Sunset suit his surfing. Supertubos might be less of an obvious thing for Robbo, but other elements of his makeup could see him take a win. For instance, if it is solid and barreling, he is in a very happy place with incredible barrel-riding skills and technical elements of positioning and timing. If it gets a bit sloppy and starts to focus more on the airs, then Robinson still has game. Let’s not forget the fact that winning begets winning. There is nothing like a few wins under the belt to make someone addicted to that feeling. Just ask Slater.
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
10.0
Really coming into his own at the moment, Colapinto has fast become one of the more popular surfers on the Championship Tour. With a rare arsenal of alternative air turns and a solid and powerful set of conventional speed, power, and flow techniques, Cola has it all, including Big Match Temperament. He might have fluffed at Pipe, but his performance at Sunset was mind-blowing, combined with his utter focus and determination.
His air game could easily see him banking excellent rides in average conditions, and should it turn into freight-train barrels, he is still in the game.
SLEEPERS
Italo Ferreira
Odds:
6.00
When he first appeared on the scene, the most striking characteristic about the Brazilian goofy-footer was his absolute desire to win. It was obvious in his surfing, his interviews, and his body movement before and after heats. He was in it t win it and nothing was going to stop him. When a wave allowed for a big turn, he would do two of them. When he saw an air section he would push harder than anyone, get more elevation, make the landing more dramatic, and get awarded for it. Such surfing saw him victorious in Portugal in 2019, and bank a solid 3rd place finish last year. Right now he is sitting at 16th on the Championship Tour rankings and must be absolutely seething about it and desperate to climb. A 17th and a 9th place finish are not even close to good enough for him. He has everything in his arsenal to do well in the next tournament, and Portugal could be the event that sees him return to form. Gut feeling says that a poor start to the season could see a very strong come-back.
John John Florence
Odds:
6.00
Leaving Florence out of the mix is difficult because the magic is clearly back. He is currently healthy with no injury recovery process happening. John John definitely has the barrel game for perfect, throaty Supertubes, but he also has an air game like no other. John John sometimes seems a bit distracted, but when he gets his game face on and gets going, no one can stop him, literally. It’s just about him finding the zone and utilizing it properly. His mastery of big open rights like Sunset and Margarets is legendary. Still, his track record on punchy beach breaks is just as solid. As long as he staves off any sort of injury, John John is always going to paddle out into any heat and any location in the world as a dangerman and favorite.
LONGSHOT
João Chianca
Odds:
23.0 - 26.0
Just when you think you have the whole thing figured out when you feel you understand all the surfers, their unique skills, and nuances, along comes a surfer like Chianca. Incredibly talented, unconventional, and popular, he might have a few chinks in his armor at this early stage of his professional career. Still, they actually make him that much more endearing. Currently ranked third on the Championship Tour rankings, with two third-place finishes in the first two events of the year, there is much speculation that this young man might be the best new thing. Two third-place finishes in Hawaii will never be a fluke. Chianca might be an upsetter for the current season. He is an unruffled competitor with a strong desire to win, so let’s always keep our eyes on him.
